Wednesday, May 13, 2009
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In This Choppy Market, Safety Literally Pays
-- By Andy Obermueller

     The S&P 500 has mounted an impressive rally -- up +35% from its March ebb. By most accounts, that's pretty good news.  But is the overall market's advance sustainable?  Most experts say that the market is beginning to look fairly valued from a fundamental perspective. And even setting aside the fundamentals, there's clearly a limit to how far stocks can advance before the investors start to stumble over psychological barriers.

     That's the ball game for a lot of investors. It doesn't have to be. In fact, income investors don't have to worry about any of it. If you don't want to parse earnings estimates and examine lots of fundamental metrics, then the simple fact is you don't have to. All you have to do is seek safety by finding a solid company with a recession-proof business model and a rich dividend yield.

     I know that sounds like a tall order, maybe even an impossibility.  But it's not. In fact, I'm about to tell you about an entire asset class that offers all of this. You could begin to collect your double-digit payout today! 
(Full Story Below)

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     In This Choppy Market, Safety Literally Pays

     They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Let's see if they're right:

     The top line on our chart shows the performance of an oil and gas master limited partnership (MLP) that owns a network of pipelines and other hardware necessary to move petroleum products throughout the United States. The bottom line shows the S&P 500, basically flatlining.

     As you can see, the MLPS has done extremely well this year, about 44 percentage points ahead of the anemic S&P 500 Index. The picture tells the MLP story, which can be summed up in one word: Safety. MLPs have delivered strong gains as the rest of the market struggled because almost nothing can interrupt their business. 

     That's why MLPs have been able to not only deliver these astounding returns, but also to accomplish another amazing feat: They've kept paying their dividends. In fact, the company in the chart, like most MLPs, has a strong double-digit payout, one that's roughly three times the market average. Other MLPs that my colleague Carla Pasternak holds in her High-Yield Investing portfolio have done even better.

     So what is an MLP, besides being yet another acronym in the alphabet soup that is Wall Street? These are special entities set up to finance and own an asset and earn revenue from its business. And though that business -- oil -- is one of the most volatile on the plant, MLPs are among the most stable investments you can buy. In fact, as you can see, they're something investors run to when the rest of the market looks too risky.

    The reason for this is the MLP business model, which looks a lot more like a toll bridge than an oil derrick. Oil, as you know, fell from a high of $147 a barrel down to the low $30 range. Great news for drivers but an apocalypse for some investors.

     But even that dramatic drop didn't change how much it costs to pump a barrel of oil from Point A to Point B. That rate stays pretty steady, regardless of the value of what's being pushed through the pipeline. Or, to use our other analogy, the bridge toll for a $375,000 Rolls-Royce Phantom is the same two dollars it is for a $2,750 Kia Spectra. A car is a car, just like a barrel of crude is a barrel of crude, whether it costs $150 or $50.

     Now, while it's true that recession reduces crude use in emerging markets, where driving is a luxury, it's not as pronounced in developed countries where driving is essential.  
 

     As you can see from the chart, there hasn't been a precipitous falloff in crude shipments. A slight reduction some months, yes, but no crash.   

     What this means practically is simply this: The nation uses a lot of oil in good times and bad, and the MLPs that own the pipelines that move oil do well throughout the upswings and downturns of the economic cycle. Your dividend checks are backed up by the nation's insatiable thirst for oil for our cars and natural gas to heat our homes. That's one of the reasons that the MLP shown in the top chart has increased its revenues +58.5% since 2005.

     What does it mean to have a strong dividend payer in your portfolio? It means one thing: Safety. You don't have to worry about what's going on in the market when you've got tangible results. For conservative investors, there's simply nothing safer than a cash return. And MLPs throw off cash like no other asset -- that's their entire reason for existence!

     If that sounds like it's right up your alley, then there's another asset class you should be aware of. You can read all about it here.
          
     Many Happy Returns


 

 

 

 

Andy Obermueller
Co-Editor
Global Dividend Opportunities
GlobalDividends.com
839-K Quince Orchard Blvd. 
Gaithersburg, MD 20878-1614

P.S. -- Don't miss a single issue! Add our address, Research@GlobalDividend.com, to your Address Book or Safe List. For instructions, go here.


Income Notes

Bankrate says 1-year CDs are paying 2.33%, but high-yield checking accounts are paying nearly twice that. To find banks in your market that are offering the best rates, visit the Web site www.checkingfinder.com.

-- Andy Obermueller


Fixed-income investors have another reason to continue on their search for the best yields: The Social Security trust fund will run out of assets in 2037, four years sooner than forecast, trustees said Tuesday. The news is equally dire for Medicare, which will reach its limit by 2014.

-- Andy Obermueller


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Recent Articles
 

Looking For A Great Dividend Play? Easy! Just Ask Uncle Sam
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May 6, 2009

It takes a lot of work to find a solid company with a rich, dependable dividend stream. So why not let the government do the heavy lifting? Government databases have a wealth of valuable information about companies, including which ones are likely to outperform. You don't even have to be a hacker to tap into them. The data is yours -- for free, including information about this dividend-paying gem.

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By focusing on dividend safety as much as yield, Carla Pasternak has built a portfolio full of winners. 20 out of her 21 picks are up -- and they're yielding an average of 8.0%.

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